Phi Edge uses AI to predict who will win
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Phi Edge uses its purpose-built AI prediction models to calculate outcome probabilities ball-by-ball during a match. We don’t take bets ourselves, but we have partnerships with companies that do. Learn more about Phi Edge
Match insights
Patriots finish with a late surge
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots turned 133/5 into 187/6 in the last three overs, hammering 52 runs in 18 balls against Antigua & Barbuda Falcons. That burst got them to a competitive total, but in the end the middle order firepower of the Falcons was enough to chase down that total.
Falcons hold nerve to chase 188 in a 3-wicket win
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons got over line with 3 balls to spare. They cleared the rope 13 times to St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’ 11, and their 35.0% dot-ball rate kept the chase moving better than the Patriots’ 43.8%. The Falcons managed to get the victory thanks to some incredible power hitting towards the end.
Lewis and Mayers shape the contest
Lewis top-scored for the Falcons with 48 from 38 and an impact score of 82, well above his 46 average over 10 matches, while Mayers set the tone in the 1st innings with 34 from 18 and then 2 wickets during the chase; his impact score was 78. Lewis's 48, plus Mayers' all-round impact, gave both sides a clear stand out performer, but it was the Falcon's opener who helped his team to victory in the end.
Match impact vs recent form
This match score (0-100) vs their recent-form average over the card's look-back window.
Falcons keep the chase alive with 16 off the 18th
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons took advantage of over 18, taking 16 from Shanaka and moving from 153/6 to 169/6. With 188 the target and 11.33 required, the chase is back within the Falcon's grasp, and those three 4s have put them in a great position.
This over · runs
Well clear of the required run rate.
Holder back as Nawaz's tempo is checked
At 114/3 after 14 overs, Antigua & Barbuda Falcons have dragged themselves back into the chase, but Holder is back to test Nawaz. His 112 strike rate against Holder sits well below his 142 career mark, so this is a matchup that can help the Patriots take back control.
Nawaz's strike rate · per 100 balls
Holder keeps Nawaz's batting strike rate below Nawaz's career mark.
Gore reaches 250 CPL runs
KG Gore has brought up 250 runs in CPL cricket, with 17 runs in this match so far nudging the Antigua & Barbuda Falcons batter to the mark. He will need a lot more runs and the help of his fellow batters to drag the Falcons up towards the target of 188 set by the Patriots.
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons spark life into the chase
Kyle Mayers was taken for 17 in Over 3, taking the Falcons from 8/1 to 25/1. With 188 to chase and a required rate of 9.94, the over with two 6s and a 4 provides a platform from which they will hope they can build.
This over · runs
Well clear of the required run rate.
Holder comes on at 3/1
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons are chasing 187, but at 3/1 after 1 over this is already a nervous start. To compound that, Holder has dominated Lewis so far in his career. Lewis has struck at only 108 against Holder, well below his 148 career batting SR, so St Kitts and Nevis Patriots have a clear early plan. Holder’s change is about squeezing the chase before it gets moving.
Lewis's strike rate · per 100 balls
Holder keeps Lewis's batting strike rate below Lewis's career mark.
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots cash in a big over
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots took Joseph for 24 in the final over. It swung the score from 163/6 to 187/6 thanks to some power hitting from Shanaka which puts the Patriots in a commanding position in the match.
This over · runs
Well clear of St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's current run rate.
Springer’s over gives Patriots a late lift
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots were 147/5 before Shamar Springer’s over turned into a useful 16, taking them to 163/6 after 19 overs. It brought 2 fours and a wicket in an over extended 10 balls, due to some very loose bowling from Springer who missed his line frequently.
This over · runs
Well clear of St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's current run rate.
Holder has the edge as Joseph comes on
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots are 120/4 after 15 overs, and Holder’s strike rate of 171 against Joseph stands well above his career 140. With Shadab Khan off and Joseph on, this could be the over where the Patriots take advantage and go big.
Holder's strike rate · per 100 balls
Joseph keeps Holder's batting strike rate below Holder's career mark.
Patriots break free with a 17-run over
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots were stuck at 92/4, then Ali was taken for 17 in Over 14 and the total jumped to 109/4. With 1 six and 1 four in the over, Holder and the Patriots are looking to establish a strong partnership and bring themselves up to a defendable total.
This over · runs
Well clear of St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's current run rate.
Falcons rip out 3 wickets and stall Patriots
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots went from 76/1 to 80/4 in 11 balls, losing Mayers, Fletcher, Wickham as Shadab Khan, Moeen Ali and some smart fielding turned the squeeze on. Four runs from 11 balls is a sharp brake on a promising start, and Antigua & Barbuda Falcons have dragged the innings back under their control.
Ali back in with Mayers held below his norm
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots are 64/1 after 8 overs, and Mayers has only struck 108 against Ali, well short of his 134 career batting SR. That is why Antigua & Barbuda Falcons have turned back to Ali at over 9, looking to keep the pressure on a start that is steady, not free-flowing.
Mayers's strike rate · per 100 balls
Ali keeps Mayers's batting strike rate below Mayers's career mark.
Khan has Fletcher tied down
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots are 55/1 after 7 overs, and Khan has restricted Fletcher to a strike rate of 81 in previous meetings against his career 125. This bowling change could be pivotal for the Falcons if they want to stem the flow of runs from the Patriots
Fletcher's strike rate · per 100 balls
Khan keeps Fletcher's batting strike rate below Fletcher's career mark.
Seales taken for 16 as Patriots push on
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots went up a gear in over 5, racing from 23/1 to 39/1 with 16 off Seales. The over had 2 fours and a 6, increasing the scoring rate to 7.8. For Antigua & Barbuda Falcons, that was the kind of over that could start to turn the momentum against them.
This over · runs
Well clear of St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's current run rate.
Death overs could decide this one
This danger zone is stacked for the death, with Fletcher striking at 219.51 and Ali at 197.67 in this phase. Lewis brings 188.34 through the middle, while Charles starts strong with 136.38 in the powerplay. If the game is tight late, both teams have the firepower to take control of the game.
Strike rate in standout phase
Standout = best relative rank vs these XIs, not personal peak SR.
Allen has Charles well below his usual tempo
Charles’s strike rate drops to 79 against Allen, a long way off his 135 career batting SR. Over 38 balls, Allen has clearly made the matchup awkward for St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’ batter, and that kind of hold can slow any innings down before it gets going.
Charles's strike rate · per 100 balls
Allen keeps Charles's batting strike rate below Charles's career mark.
Mayers has Seales’ number
Mayers strikes at 189 against Seales, well above his 134 career batting SR, and that is a sharp warning for Antigua and Barbuda Falcons. If Seales cannot slow him, St Kitts and Nevis Patriots could get off to a flier.
Mayers's strike rate · per 100 balls
Seales keeps Mayers's batting strike rate below Mayers's career mark.
Perera needs one more six for 200
Perera goes into this CPL meeting with 199 career T20 sixes, just one away from 200. The Falcons will be hoping Perera continues to clear the boundary with ease and flies past this milestone.
Holder leads the Patriots’ watchlist
Holder brings the sharpest all-round edge with 72 wickets and 492 runs in his last 50 games making him the main man to watch in this match, while Hasaranga adds another strong bowling option with 58 wickets and an impact score of 74. Charles offers the batting weight with 1287 runs at 139, and Salamkheil’s 58 wickets keep the pressure on. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots have match-winners in both disciplines.
Recent impact score
Role-specific form score (0-100) over the card's look-back window.
ABF and SKNP meet level in a 2-2 rivalry
Antigua and Barbuda Falcons and St Kitts and Nevis Patriots walk in with nothing between them in this matchup, 2 wins apiece from 4 meetings. All 4 contests between these two have been won by the chasing side.
Falcons start faster, Patriots finish slightly stronger
Antigua and Barbuda Falcons bring the sharper early burst with 8.38 in the Powerplay, while St Kitts and Nevis Patriots sit at 7.36. The middle overs stay close at 6.98 and 7.6, and both sides lift late, with 8.99 for the Falcons and 9.11 for the Patriots. The Falcons will look to separate themselves from the opposition early, but if they can't get away in the powerplay, expect a very tightly matched game.
Runs per over by phase
Powerplay, middle and death scoring rates for each side.
Sir Vivian Richards Stadium leans toward the chase
At Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, 143 is the average first-innings mark across 30 matches, and 63% of chases have come off. This is the first game at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium of CPL 2026, so we are yet to see exactly how this pitch will play, but if history is anything to go off, the chasing side will hold an early advantage.
Avg first innings run rate by phase at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium
How first-innings scoring breaks down here.
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