Phi Edge uses AI to predict who will win
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ABF won
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Phi Edge uses its purpose-built AI prediction models to calculate outcome probabilities ball-by-ball during a match. We don’t take bets ourselves, but we have partnerships with companies that do. Learn more about Phi Edge
Match insights
The moments that shaped the match
Trinbago Knight Riders lost their 1st innings momentum in four overs, turning a strong start into a stalled middle phase against Antigua & Barbuda Falcons. From 81/1 to 96/4, Colin Munro’s 46 was followed by a collapse.
ABF’s 51-run surge flips the chase
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons turned the chase on its head between overs 17 and 19, hammering 51 runs in 18 balls to jump from 117/5 to 168/5. That batting surge against Trinbago Knight Riders seized control at the death and won a match that already looked lost.
Falcons edge Knight Riders by 5 wickets
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons got home at 168/5 after Trinbago Knight Riders posted 165/6, a finish shaped by a 27 run 18th over. The Falcons cleared 10 sixes to 8 and kept their scoring rate at 9.1/over, enough to nudge past a total that looked safe until the death.
Khan and James decide it for Antigua & Barbuda Falcons
Khan was the match winner here, hammering 52 off 20 with an impact score of 93, while James set it up in the first innings for the Falcons with 2 wickets for 23 and an impact score of 92. Khan’s form line of 59 now looks modest beside that burst, and James lifted a 42 average impact with a great spell. Together, they seized control and left TKR with no answer.
Match impact vs recent form
This match score (0-100) vs their recent-form average over the card's look-back window.
Falcons explode with a 27-run 18th over
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons have turned the chase around in the 18th over taking the score from 128/5 to 155/5 with Nathan Edward taken apart for 27. Three sixes and a four in 8 balls have slammed the door on the Trinbago Knight Riders, and with 165 the target, the Falcons have given themselves a real late surge.
This over · runs
Well clear of the required run rate.
Khan reaches 200 sixes in T20 cricket
Khan has brought up a clean career milestone in the same over as Perera, moving from 197 to 200 career T20 sixes. For Antigua & Barbuda Falcons, the timing matters too, with what was looking like an unlikely chase now within reach.
Perera reaches 200 T20 sixes
Perera has landed his 200th career six in T20s. He's starting to move through the gears at a crucial time for the Falcons, who find themselves in a difficult position with 3 overs to go.
Hosein has Nawaz in a tighter corner
Antigua & Barbuda Falcons are 42/2 in 7 overs chasing 165, and Nawaz’s 92 SR against Hosein sits well below his 142 career batting SR. This is a great matchup for the Knight Riders who are looking to smother the Falcons further in a critical point in the chase.
Nawaz's strike rate · per 100 balls
Hosein keeps Nawaz's batting strike rate below Nawaz's career mark.
Joseph has Pollard in check at 97/4
Trinbago Knight Riders are 97/4 after 11 overs, and in the past, Alzarri Joseph has made Kieron Pollard work harder than usual. Pollard’s strike rate is 80 against Joseph, well below his 151 career batting SR, the Falcons will hope they can continue to lay on the pressure with this bowling change.
Pollard's strike rate · per 100 balls
Joseph keeps Pollard's batting strike rate below Pollard's career mark.
Falcons rip out 3 wickets in 16 balls
Trinbago Knight Riders went from 84/1 to 96/4 in 16 balls, and the innings has suddenly lost its shape. Nicholas Pooran fell caught off Joshua James, then Matthew Breetzke was stumped and Colin Munro bowled by Shadab Khan as Antigua & Barbuda Falcons turned one quiet passage into a collapse. At 97/4 after 11 overs, the momentum might be starting to shift.
Khan slows Munro as TKR reach 84/2
Trinbago Knight Riders are 84/2 after 8 overs, and Khan looks to slow down Munro. Munro’s strike rate is 95 against Khan, well below his 140 career batting SR. Antigua & Barbuda Falcons will hope to get a breakthrough with this bowling change to shift the momentum of the innings.
Munro's strike rate · per 100 balls
Khan keeps Munro's batting strike rate below Munro's career mark.
TKR cash in with 18 from Over 5
Trinbago Knight Riders turned 42/1 into 60/1 in an over, with Ali taken for 18 in the 5th. Three fours and a six in the over put the pressure back on Antigua & Barbuda Falcons, and at 60/1 after 5 overs, TKR have given their first innings a serious start in the powerplay.
This over · runs
Well clear of Trinbago Knight Riders's current run rate.
TKR turn 17-run over into a flying start
Trinbago Knight Riders have exploded to 34/0 in 3 overs after Jayden Seales was taken for 17 in Over 3. 1 six and 2 fours were smashed during the 3rd, turning 17/0 into 34/0 in no time. Antigua & Barbuda Falcons have been put on the back foot early, with TKR already setting a solid first-innings platform.
This over · runs
Well clear of Trinbago Knight Riders's current run rate.
Death overs hold the key for Pooran
Trinbago Knight Riders have the biggest late-overs threat in Pooran, whose strike rate jumps to 217.89 at the death with a 34 boundary percentage. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons have an answer for this with Lewis in the middle at 185.0 and Cornwall at 167.74, while Breetzke looks to get them of to a strong start.
Strike rate in standout phase
Standout = best relative rank vs these XIs, not personal peak SR.
Breetzke looks sharpest late against Ali
Breetzke’s forecast climbs to 166 in the Death, well above 125 in the Powerplay and 124 through the Middle. That suggests Ali may keep him in check early, but the pressure rises sharply at the back end.
Breetzke's predicted strike rate against Ali
Based on historical T20 matchups
Joseph has kept Pollard well below his usual pace
Pollard’s strike rate sits at 80 against Joseph, a long way under his 151 career batting SR. Joseph has clearly found the better matchup, and that matters for Trinbago Knight Riders against Antigua and Barbuda Falcons. If Pollard is slowed again, ABF can keep a key threat from taking over.
Pollard's strike rate · per 100 balls
Joseph keeps Pollard's batting strike rate below Pollard's career mark.
Breetzke has Ali’s number
Breetzke’s strike rate jumps to 205 against Ali, well above his 135 career batting SR, and that is a serious mismatch. For Trinbago Knight Riders, that kind of edge can turn a match quickly, with Antigua and Barbuda Falcons needing Ali to break the pattern early.
Breetzke's strike rate · per 100 balls
Ali keeps Breetzke's batting strike rate below Breetzke's career mark.
Perera one six away from 200
Perera arrives for Antigua & Barbuda Falcons needing just 1 more career T20 six to reach 200. At 199, he is right on the brink, and one big shot would turn this into a milestone moment as he tries to power his team to victory.
Hales is 13 away from 14500 career T20 runs
Trinbago Knight Riders will have Hales under the spotlight with just 13 more needed to reach 14500 career T20 runs. The Knight Riders will be hoping that his batting contributions can steer them towards victory in tonight's contest.
Cornwall is 22 away from 1500 CPL runs
Cornwall walks in with 1478 CPL runs and needs just 22 more to reach 1500, a huge personal milestone. In a T20 where one big innings can shift momentum quickly, Cornwall is one to watch.
Pollard and Narine headline TKR’s biggest threats
Trinbago Knight Riders come armed with Pollard’s 1344 runs at a strike rate of 162 and Narine’s 61 wickets at an economy of 5.94 in their last 50 matches, a game winning duo. Munro’s 1434 runs and Khan’s 65 wickets are the Falcon's answer, but the impact scores sit with TKR’s match-winners.
Recent impact score
Role-specific form score (0-100) over the card's look-back window.
ABF lead TKR 3-2 in a tight rivalry
Antigua and Barbuda Falcons narrowly lead the Trinbago Knight Riders 3-2 across their 5 meetings, but this one could be anyone's game. The Knight Riders have won the last 2 meetings, and a win here tonight would put them level on points with the Falcons.
TKR finish harder, Falcons need a strong start
Trinbago Knight Riders have been the stronger side at the death, striking at 11.53 over their last 10 matches, well clear of Antigua and Barbuda Falcons at 9.51. The gap is minimal in the earlier phases, with 8.0 to 7.88 in the Powerplay and 7.39 to 7.31 in the Middle, but TKR’s stronger finish could be the difference if this game goes all the way.
Runs per over by phase
Powerplay, middle and death scoring rates for each side.
Sir Vivian Richards Stadium rewards bowling first
In the last 30 games at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, 144 is the average first innings total and 145+ has been enough to win 47% of the time. Chases have worked 67% of the time suggesting bowling is the choice at the toss, with the Falcons managing to get their target of 188 at this ground just two days ago. Don't get too concerned if a team has a slow start, the average run rate jumps up at the death.
Avg first innings run rate by phase at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium
How first-innings scoring breaks down here.
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